Workshop Modules

Four modules constitute a one-day workshop. Contact CBF for more information on bringing these workshops to your organization.

Modules 1–3 — Developing General Principles of Business Forecasting

  • Module 1: Overview and Evolution of Business Forecasting Methods

    • Forecasting: the second-oldest profession
    • Three prerequisites for effective forecasting
    • Types of forecasting methods
      • Extrapolative methods
      • Explanatory methods
      • Judgmental methods
      • Combining forecasts
    • Importance of being eclectic
    • Forecasts vs. targets
    • Forecasting support: publications, websites, and conferences
    • Forecasting software
  • Module 2: Detecting Patterns in the Historical Data
  • Module 3: Forecast-Accuracy Measurement

Modules 4–7 — Introductions to Modern Methods of Business Forecasting

  • Module 4: Exponential Smoothing
  • Module 5: Product Hierarchies and Pyramids
  • Module 6: Box-Jenkins Models (ARIMA)
  • Module 7: Regression Modeling

Modules 8–12 — Extensions of the Basic Methods

  • Module 8: Modeling Special Events and Exceptional Demands
  • Module 9: Refresher on Statistical Testing
  • Module 10: Accounting for Leads and Lags: Dynamic Modeling
  • Module 11: Dynamic Regression Case Study
  • Module 12: Tracking Forecast Accuracy over Time

Modules 13–16 — Management of the Forecasting Process

  • Module 13: Judgmental Adjustments of Statistical Forecasts
  • Module 14: Auditing the Forecasting Process
  • Module 15: Designing an Improved Forecasting Process
  • Module 16: Games Forecasters Play, and Addressing Self-Serving Biases