Forecasting Resources

Forecasting Portals

ForecastingPrinciples.com: Provides links to sources of forecasting information and know-how: data sources, software options, useful books, articles, and research-in-progress, and advice on forecasting method selection, implementation, and evaluation. The Special Interest Groups (SIGS) area provides leads in fields such as crime, health, political, climate, and tourism forecasting.

 

AppliedForecasting.com: Keep current about business forecasting with postings on conferences, new publications and presentations, and software developments. Aimed at researchers, practitioners and students. This blog is a public service of ManagementScience.nl, an operations research consultancy based near Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Europe.

 

Practitioner Journal

Foresight, a quarterly publication of the nonprofit International Institute of Forecasters, prints concise, readable, trustworthy articles on forecasting methods, processes, and practices. A must-read for the forecasting practitioner.

Scholarly Journals

For new, peer-reviewed research, see the International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. Articles here are usually aimed at the mathematically sophisticated forecaster.

Recent Books Providing Valuable Advice About Forecasting

The Business Forecasting Deal, by Michael Gilliland, (2010). Oriented toward operational forecasting, this book exposes bad practices in forecasting and proposes practical solutions. Author Mike Gilliland is Product Marketing Manager for SAS. Reviewed in Foresight, Fall 2010.




 

Strategic Business Forecasting, by Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar (2009). Simon Ramo, founder of TRW, and Ronald Sugar, retired CEO of Northrop Grumman, propose a four-step system for making long-term forecasts of strategic importance and provide case studies of how the methodology has been applied. Reviewed in Foresight, Spring 2010.




 

Future Ready: How to Master the Art of Business Forecasting, by Steve Morlidge and Steve Player (2010). A provocative guide for forecast managers. Probes questions such as

  • What makes a good forecast?
  • How frequently should it be updated?
  • What information should it contain?
  • How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
  • How accurate does it need to be?
  • How should you deal with risk and uncertainty?
  • What is the best way to organize a forecast process?

 

Future Savvy: Indentifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change, by Adam Gordon (2008). A "consumer of forecasts" guide to understanding the nature and trustworthiness of forecasts. Futurist author Adam Gordon exposes forecasts that are self-serving, ideological, based on poor data, and that ignore the negatives and bury uncertainty. See the review in Foresight, Spring 2009.